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            Guest For FRIDAY  OCTOBER 9,  2009 

                                    (Originally aired: 12-16-93)


                                     Air Marshal AYEZ KHAN







  Pakistan Military Leader and Commentator


   Chair: Human Rights Abuses Commission

                           Azad Kashmir


The program can be viewed in its entirety by clicking the you tube link below:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52HXTuVtfIw - AIR MARSHAL AYEZ KHAN




Air Marshal Ayaz A Khan (R)

Unfortunately India and Pakistan had adversarial relations since sixty years. After the Mumbai carnage Pakistan is under threat of pre-emptive strikes. Fourth Indo-Pakistan war could be triggered by another terrorist attack anywhere in India. This is a dangerous scenario. India and Pakistan have fought three wars, and war drums for the fourth war are getting louder. It is in order therefore to comprehend Indian military capabilities, and Pakistan's ability to defend itself. Defense capability is an interplay of economic and military potential. Indian economy is booming, and its GDP growth is in double digits. The global recession has impacted Indian economy, but its defense capability remains intact. Military power and capabilities are sustained by economic and industrial potential. Geography, demography, population, oil resources and reserves, industrial capability including defense production, dollar reserves, self reliance, education, quality of manpower and leadership have a bearing on military power. Seven lakh Indian troops are tied down in Jammu and Kashmir. India has over one hundred billion dollar reserves. The West, Israel and Russia are India's weapon suppliers.

Indian Army has eighteen Corps with 34 Divisions including four Rapid Action Divisions, which would spear head ground offensives. Pakistan Army has ten Corps and twenty five divisions. Indian Army has eighteen Infantry, ten Mountain, three Armored, and two Artillery Divisions. Besides it has five Infantry, one parachute, thirteen Air Defense, and four Engineering Brigades, designated as independent formations. In addition there are two Air Defense Groups, and fourteen Army Aviation Helicopter units. This is a sizeable force, capable of launching major offensives from several fronts. The decentralized command structure will be an advantage, as compared to Pakistan's centralized Army command organization. Pakistan Army has an active force of 620,000 well trained personnel, with 528000 reservists, and 150000 para-military troops. Pakistan armed forces are seventh largest in the world. Pakistan Army's doctrine of "Offensive Defense", evolved by General Mirza Aslam Beg was put to test in 1989 in Exercise Zarb-e Momin. The doctrine is to launch a sizeable offensive into enemy territory, rather than wait for enemy strikes or attacks. In case of Indian land offensive Pakistan Army and Air Force will respond with land and air offensives to gain and hold enemy territory. Before embarking on further offensive, gains shall be consolidated. In 1990 the Central Corps of Reserves was created to fight in the desert sectors , where enemy land offensives are expected. These dual capable formations trained for offensive and holding actions are fully mechanized.

Pakistan Army has ten Corps including the newly formed Strategic Corps. The Army has twenty six divisions (eight less than India). Two more divisions were raised as Corps reserves for V and XXXI Corps. Pakistan Army has two armored divisions, and ten independent armored brigades. Presently one hundred thousand troops are stationed on the Pak Afghan border to fight terror. Special Service Group-SSG comprises two airborne Brigades i.e. six battalions. Pakistan Army has 360 helicopters, over two thousand heavy guns, and 3000 APC's. Its main anti-tank weapons are Tow, Tow Mk II, Bakter Shiken and FGM 148 ATGM. The Army Air Defence Command has S.A- 7 Grail, General Dynamics FIM-92 Stinger, GD FIM Red Eye, and ANZA Mk-I, Mk-II, Mk-III and HQ 2 B surface ti air missiles. Radar controlled Oerlikon is the standard Ack Ack weapon system. The ballistic missile inventory of the Army is substantial. It comprises Ghauri III and Shaheen III IRB'S; medium range Ghauri I and II and Shaheen II, and short range Hatf I- B, Abdali, Ghaznavi, Shaheen I and M -11 missiles. All the ballistic missiles can carry nuclear war heads. Nuclear and conventional weapon capable Babur Cruise missile is the new addition to Pakistan's strategic weapon inventory. Number of ballistic missiles and war heads are almost the same as India has. So there is a parity in nuclear weapons, which is a deterrent.

Indian armor is of Russian origin. Out of 2295 Indian Army's Main Battle tanks, 2235 are of Russian origin. The main battle tanks are; 310 T-90-S Bishsma's (300 are on order), 1925 T-72M Ajeya's.. The T-90 and the T-72 have 125 mm smooth barrel guns. T-72 though old is the backbone of Indian Armor Corp's. 268 Ajeya's have been upgraded with Israeli Elbit thermal imaging systems. 1000 T-72 MBT's are awaiting up-gradation. There have been several instances of T-72's gun barrel bursting. 124 Indian made Arjun (heavy 56 ton) MBT are on order. Sixty Arjun's are in operational service. Arjun's engine overheating problem has not been solved. Arjun has a 120 mm gun, but is unfit or desert operations.

Pakistan Army is equally strong in armor, capable of giving a fitting response to any Indian military adventure. Main Battle tanks Al-Khalid and Al-Zarrar are the backbone of Pakistan's armor Corp's. Both are Pakistan made. Pakistan's tank armory comprises :five hundred Al-Khalid MBT's; 320 Al-Zarrar type 85 II MBT's, 500 Al-Zarrar MBT's; 450 79II AP (Chinese type 81 upgrade, and 570 T-80 UD MBT of Ukranian make. In addition Pakistan has 880 Type 59, which were procured from China in 1970.This makes a total of three thousand six hundred and twenty tanks. All Pakistani MBT's except T-59's have 125 mm smooth barrel guns. Indian armor offensives in Kashmir, Punjab, and Sind would be effectively challenged by Pakistani armor and mechanized formations, depending on PAF's ability to keep the skies over the battle areas clear of Indian Air Force. India's modern air defense system has Israeli Arrow anti-missile missiles, and 90,000 surface to air missiles-SAM's. India has one hundred nuclear armed ballistic missiles (Agni-1 and Agni II), and Brahmos the new supersonic cruise missile. Indian Army is well trained, equipped and highly professional, and so is Pakistan Army.

Air power is likely to play a key, if not a decisive role in any future major or minor India-Pakistan armed conflict. The aim of Indian pre-emptive strikes will be maximum destruction by surprise air attacks, combined with shock commando action. A possibe scenario is; intensive bombing of the target to be followed by attacks by armed helicopters and ground assault by heliborne Commandoes. An overview of Indian Air Force and Pakistan Air Force will help comprehension of IAF's offensive capabilities, and defensive capabilities of Pakistan Air Force. Indian Air Force has 3000 aircraft including training, transport, helicopters and 800-1000 combat air craft, which operate from sixty air bases, including Farkhor airbase in Tajikistan.. Six hundred IAF's strike and air defense fighters are expected to be operational. Pakistan Air Force has 630 aircraft, which include 530 combat aircraft, with 400 operational at any time. In 1996 India signed an agreement with Russia for the purchase of 90 Su 30 Mk-1 multi-role fighter-bombers. In 2004 a multi-billion licence was signed for building additional 140. 240 Su30-Mk-1's were ordered, 120 are already in service. With a maximum speed of Mach 2.3 and range of 8000 Km with refueling and ability to carry tons of conventional munitions and nuclear weapons, it is a lethal and menacing weapon system for the strike and interception role. Other IAF's advanced strike and combat aircraft are: 51 Mirage-2000 (of Kargil fame), 60 Mig-29's (for air defense), 250 old Mig-21's (110 have been refurbished with Israeli help), 47 Jaguars and 70 Mig-27's for ground attack. 220 LCA Teja's under manufacture at HAL Bangalore will start entering service in 2010... IAF's fighter pilots are well trained and have out shone American pilots during joint exercises.

Pakistan Air Force has 200 rebuilt Mirage- 3's ( for night air defense) and Mirage-5's for the strike role. They can carry nuclear weapons. They have been upgraded with new weapon systems, radars, and avionics. Additionally the PAF has 42 F-16's, 150 F-7's including 55 latest F-7 PG's. Manufacture of 150 JF 17 Thunder fighters (jointly designed) is underway at Pakistan Aeronautical Complex Kamra. The JF -17 Thunder is a 4th generation fly by wire multi-role fighter aircraft. Eight are already in PAF service. An order has been placed with China for the purchase of 36 JF-10, a Mach 2.3 -5th generation multi-role fighter, comparable in performance to the Su-30 Mk-1 with the Indian Air Force. PAF is on Red Alert, and is maintaining full vigil to intercept and destroy IAF intruders. During the recent air space violation, the IAF intruders were in the sights of PAF's F-16's, but were allowed to escape unscathed to avoid a major diplomatic crisis. PAF pilots and technicians are well trained, high professionals, who will be able to prove their mettle in the future battle with India. A comparison of Indian Navy and Pakistan Navy reveals that Pakistan Navy could inflict substantial damage to the Indian Navy. Indian Navy has 16 submarines; Pakistan Navy has ten, some are brand new. Indian Navy has 27 war ships, Pakistan Navy has ten. Indian Aircraft Carrier Veerat, will be a menace, and must be sunk by submarine or air attacks, if it attempts to block Pakistan's sea lanes or ports. It is hoped that better sense prevails and India desists from invading and attacking Pakistan. If it does, the consequences will be horrible for both the countries.
IntelliBriefs: Comparison of military power, Pak-India

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Default Re: Comparison of military power, Pak-India . By Air Marshal Ayaz A Khan (R)

Another western perspective about Indian Tank force..

India has bought another 347 Russian T-90S tanks, at a cost of $3.5 million each. India is also building another thousand T-90S tanks under license, and using many parts imported from Russia.

Last year, India adopted the Russian T-90 as its new main battle tank. There will be local production of about a thousand T-90s over the next 14 years. India already has imported 310 T-90s. Under this plan, by 2020, India will have 2,000 upgraded T-72s, over 1,500 T90s, and few hundred other tanks. This will be the most powerful armored force in Eurasia, unless China moves ahead with upgrades to its tank force. The border between China and India is high in the Himalayan mountains, which is not good tank country. India's tank force is mainly for use against Pakistan.

The T-90 is a highly evolved T-72. Originally, the T-190 was done as a fall-back design. The T-80 was supposed to be the successor to the T-72. But like the T-62 and T-64 before it, the T-80 didn't quite work out as planned. So the T-72, with a much improved turret and all manner of gadgets, was trotted out as the T-90. Weighting 47 tons, it's 23 feet long, 11 feet wide and 7.5 feet high. Same package, better contents. And with well trained crews, it could be deadly.

India doesn't have to worry about facing M-1s. The main enemy is Pakistan, which has T-72s, a few T-80s and many older T-55s (the Chinese version.) Training remains a problem for the Indian army, because of rising fuel costs. Again, it's all relative, for the Pakistanis are even less able to pay for the vast quantities of fuel needed to move a tank around for training.

Currently, fuel alone costs the Indian army about a dollar per kilometer traveled by each for T-72s, and a little more for T-90s. So if you want to take a hundred T-72s out for several days of training, each vehicle is going to travel, say, 200 kilometers. That's $20,000 just for the fuel. Do that four times a year, for the entire 4,000 tank force, and you're out nearly $3 million. That's for minimal training, and many countries cannot afford even that. You can more than double the fuel cost to take care of replacement parts and repairs for accidents.

American armored vehicles cost from $15-$25 per kilometer to operate, largely because of higher personnel costs. This is why, even when poor nations get first rate tanks, they often do poorly in combat. Buying the tank, for a few million dollars each, is only a small part of the total cost of creating a competent crew to get the most out of that high tech tank.


Fighting terror with greater effect – AIR MARSHAL (RETD) AYAZ AHMED KHAN

With the new government in Islamabad, there will be a new policy in place to deal with terrorism. Emotion led advocates are urging immediate withdrawal of the troops from FATA. The new government may try for a political accommodation with the terrorists who have bombed to death atleast 1500 Pakistani’s, including soldiers during the year 2007. Offering promises of autonomy, development projects, bribes, and troop withdrawal may or may not work. But negotiating with the terrorists would make a difference. The new rulers must try persuading the terrorists to stop the suicide bombings. 
Washington plans to fight terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan with greater effect. Surge has already been ordered and 3200 US Marines have started arriving in Afghanistan. The US Air Force is planning a new air strategy, and impressed by the accuracy and lethality of Predator and Reaper drones, Robert Gates the US Defence Secretary, has asked for funds for more drones for the US Air Force. Gates saw the unmanned planes in Iraq, piloted remotely from Nevada in America, destroying insurgents’ hideouts with pinpoint accuracy. Gates has been briefed about the destruction caused by these deadly drones in Iraq, Afghanistan and tribal areas of Pakistan. These remote controlled planes have the ability to linger over a target for twenty-four hours. They provide clear images of insurgents’ hideouts, movements, deployment and intentions, to commanders in the US. The electronic photo capability of the US drones is amazing. 
These fifth generation un-manned planes can detect a man with a suicide belt, automatic weapon or a cell phone. They will change the nature of anti-terrorist war by their surprise and shock effect. With these drones in the air the terrorists will have no place to hide except insides the caves. Presently this is the best weapon system and is likely to be used in greater numbers by the USAF in the coming months.
Air Force Lieutenant General Gary North who runs air combat operations across Africa and West Asia, including Afghanistan impressed by the lethality of the Reaper has asked for substantial increase. Defence Secretary Gates has asked the Pentagon to field more Predator and Reaper drones to meet USAF requirements. The Predator drone carries Hellfire missiles. During the war on Afghanistan pilots launched these on airfields. On March 10, 2008 Los Angles Times reported: “In Pakistan missiles of unknown origin smashed into a Taliban compound in what appeared to be the second unacknowledged US Predator strike into that country.” In 2007 there were a number of Predator strikes on Tribal villages. The regime tried to hide the missile bombing of a madrassa at Bajaur in which 82 people, including children died. It was shameful for the government to own this slaughter, when Predator drones had been flying the area for three day’s, prior to the firing of Hellfire missiles.
The new Reaper drone travels at twice the speed of the Predator, and is less vulnerable to ground fire. The Reaper flew its first mission on October 1, 2007 and is the most lethal drone in USAF inventory. According to US experts, “It bristles with guided missiles and bombs similar to those abroad an F-16 jet fighter.” So far the Reaper has flown 16 missions attacking targets in Afghanistan using 500 pound bombs and 110 pound Hellfire missiles.
General Gary North states, “….the Reaper….is proving to be extremely capable. It is very accurate.” On February 24, 2008 a Reaper drone tracked a truck that appeared to be carrying a mortar tube and militants team to fire the weapon. The insurgents were ready to use the mortar near Kandhar, when a Reaper bomb struck the truck. The same day a Predator drone destroyed a militants weapons cache with a Hellfire missile. Instead of using F-15, 16 and B-52 fighters and bombers deployed in Qatar, drones will be used to detect and crush terrorists.
Loren Thompson, a military analyst at the Lexington Institute comments, ” It is almost having our own little satellite over a terrorist cell. So far the Reapers durability and safety record has been good. None has been shot down. But these drones are expensive. Each of the ten Reaper systems with the USAF cost $ 53 million. The USAF had procured 258 Predator drone systems in 2007, each costing $ 40 million. Presently the USAF has 102 Predators in its inventory. It is seeking $ 540 million for additional Predators and $ 334 million for more Reaper drones.
The ability of these remotely controlled drones to linger over the targets for twenty-four hours, provide continuous images of insurgent strength, movement, activity and intentions, is of vital importance for attack plans. Accuracy and lethality of drone launched guided weapons will overcome the advantage of terrain protection that the terrorists have along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. In the changing nature of terrorist combat in Afghanistan, Waziristan and Iraq, these drones will enhance vigilance and help pre-empt terrorist attacks. Both Predator and Reaper can detect a suicide bomber with an explosive belt round his waist. This information could help stop the suicide bomber from causing death and devastation.”
The US leaders are convinced that Laden and Al-Qaeda fighters are hiding in Pak-Afghan border areas, and are busy planning suicide attacks on the US. Regular suicide bombings, especially the assassination of BB has shocked every country, especially the US, where she is held in great regard. The US government is determined that the terrorists must not get away.
However, it is important that the new coalition government must formulate a policy to deal with the US plans which includes the violation of the Pakistani territory. US resolve to fight terror should not be underestimated. John MaCain Republican Party’s presidential nominee has reiterated, ” I will go to the door of hell to get Osama bin Laden and terrorists threatening America.” General T Michael Mosley Chief of the USAF has outlined a new strategic plan to fight low intensity war, as well as threat from ascendant powers, seeking to challenge American military superiority. Bush has approved 183 new F-22 Raptor fighter planes for the US Air Force. USAF wants 381. F-22 Raptor fighters and Predator and Reaper drones for a key role in the war on terror.

Related posts:

  1. Strategic plan of US air force – AIR MARSHAL (RETD) AYAZ AHMED KHAN
  2. Vision for peace and harmony – AIR MARSHAL (RETD) AYAZ AHMED KHAN
  4. Passion for democracy – AIR MARSHAL (RETD) AYAZ AHMED KHAN
  5. Democracy is the best revenge- Air Marshal Ayaz A Khan (R)
  6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



                                                                               Friday October 9, 2009

                                 10:30 - 11:30 AM  / (NYC Time)


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