Managing Partner
By: Ryan J. Morris,
Managing Partner
My intention here is to
give some insight into
how I think and make
investment decisions.
Competitive
Advantages
I have several
significant competitive
advantages that are
difficult to replicate.
I focus on finding
investment opportunities
where these competitive
advantages will be
maximized.
Critical and logical
thinking. My educational
background and
foundation for the way I
think is rooted in
fundamental physics and
engineering. I am quick
to pick up on things
that are inconsistent
and question everything
until I understand the
core reasons for things.
This applies to
investing in such a way
that makes my reasoning
for making decisions
clear and consistent.
This also means that any
mistakes will be
transparent and learned
from. Investments where
the superficial
appearance and the
fundamental truth are as
divergent as possible
will favor investors
with a thorough logical
process.
Emotional independence.
I am not influenced
emotionally by what
other people are doing.
Doing what is popular
has never been natural
or desirable for me.
This has deep and early
origins and I don't
think is a quality that
can be replicated by
investment competitors.
Emotion does not play
any role in my
investment decisions and
so I will have a
competitive advantage by
focusing on investment
situations where others
are likely to be making
decisions emotionally or
based on what those
around them are doing.
This tends to occur
where there is
significant uncertainty
or excessive pessimism
or optimism about the
future.
Passion. I love the
process of investing. I
value learning and
understanding how the
world works more than
anything else. Reading
hundreds of SEC filings
and books is
surprisingly very
enjoyable because it
feeds the desire to
learn.
Personal Background
At the risk of appearing
unconventional, I would
propose simply that
conventional or average
inputs should lead to
average outputs and that
unconventional inputs
are required to get
outputs substantially
different than the norm.
Whether those outputs
are in the positive or
the negative direction
in the long run is of
course yet to be
determined but the track
record so far would
strongly suggest the
positive.
The reason I spend some
time here discussing
early childhood is
because the competitive
advantages I mention are
things that are
established very early
in life. Indeed this is
the reason they are so
difficult to replicate
by would-be competitors.
Benefits that occur
later in life such as
university degrees,
certifications, and
accumulation of factual
knowledge, are much
easier to duplicate and
thus tend not to convey
an advantage once
everyone has them.
Very early in childhood
I was aware of the
importance of money. I
do not know precisely
where that came from but
I know that the
collecting instinct was
always much stronger
than the consuming
instinct. The collecting
instinct with respect to
knowledge and
understanding of how
things work has always
been the strongest
driver for me. At age
11, I learned about
man-made nuclear fusion
- something with the
power to solve the
world's energy problems.
After spending the year
or two learning as much
as possible about
fundamental physics, I
was introduced to a key
insight that I could
contribute more to
distributive side of the
problem rather than the
generation side of the
problem. By allocating
capital efficiently, I
could create more
positive change in the
world than if I became a
great scientist.
With this new insight, I
took the plunge and
bought my first stock.
It was around then that
I read about Warren
Buffett and his
teachings - both his
original insights and
what he has passed down
from Ben Graham.
Everything made sense to
me but this was around
the time of The Great
Bubble so my sense of
context was quite
distorted. It ended up
being the perfect time
to learn; the great
optimism followed by
great humiliation
succeeded in removing
the emotional component
of investing for me.
I pursued my interests
in science academically
even though the long
term intention was to go
to the business world. I
had the notion that if I
follow the same path
that many others do,
then I couldn't get the
fundamental and
multi-disciplinary
understanding I felt I
needed to be truly
effective. I got both my
undergraduate and
masters degrees from
Cornell University in
the major of Operations
Research and Information
Engineering. The field
is essentially applying
computer science and
math techniques to
solving distribution
problems. The
combination of
scientific rigor and
lateral thinking fit me
well and the education
made my thinking much
more thorough and
robust.
During my academic years
I was also a
championship rower and
road cyclist. I needed
something to apply my
desire to learn how
things work and actually
apply it (applying
school knowledge to
merely getting a better
grade didn't have the
same real world appeal)
and I did so with
scientific training.
Unfortunately after
reading almost every
peer reviewed study
published on physiology
and training that
related to rowing or
cycling (there are only
about 500), the learning
need wasn't satisfied
anymore and I moved on.
The world of investing
and business grows
faster than any
individual could keep
up, so there is no
danger of that need
being unfulfilled.
After graduating I
co-founded VideoNote, a
software company, with
Cornell University as
our first customer. We
made software for
delivering educational
video with search
capability so students
could target their
studying effectively.
The goal was to create
technology that augments
education. We were
successful in helping
several thousand
students learn more and
scientifically
demonstrated improved
grades by performing a
controlled study. Most
importantly I learned a
great deal about
business and people from
those two short years
that I felt comfortable
enough to become a
fiduciary and begin to
rationally invest other
people's money.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
April 9, 2010
Ryan J.
Morris, Managing Partner
2010 Q1
Partnership Letter
Dear
Partner:
This is
our first quarterly
letter, after switching
from semi
quite a
bit shorter than the
annual letters though my
goal is still to give
you all the information
that I
would
desire if our positions
were re
about in
future letters please
let me know.
Our
Performance in Q1 2010
The
following is a table of
our quarterly returns
since inception. Our
most recent quarterly
return was
unusually high, though
far less unusual than
all four quarters in
2009 which more resemble
returns I'd
be quite
happy with over a 2-3
year timeframe. More
importantly, as you can
see from the monthly
returns
in the appendix, we had
our first inferio
I point
out February not because
something interesting
happened
meaningless as the 11
month streak of
produces
widgets each day, good
investment ideas are far
and few between (it was
only 2 ideas that
gave us
the vast majority of our
returns in 2009).
meaningful short term
performance measurement
like the
the
change in momentary
opinion of other market
participants
we are
correct in our reasoning
about an investment
idea.
fairly
measuring performance.
I make
no attempt to perform
over a monthly or
quarterly basis and will
annual
return over a smooth 15%
annual return.
perspective is one of
our most significant
competitive adva
I will
change my mind in less
than a second if I have
reliable new information
but an updated market
quotation does not meet
my definition of
information.
Time
Period
Q1 2009
(Feb 24 - March 31)
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
2009
Full Year
Q1 2010
Cumulative return
Value of
$1,000 invested at
inception
1) Gross
return is after expenses
(which were 0.53% of
assets this year)
2)
Limited Partner Return
is after Performance
Allocation of 25% of
profits above 6%
annualized, calculated
3) S&P
500 Return is based only
on the index (add
approximately 2%
annually to include
dividends)
1
semi-annual letters in
2009. I intend for these
to be
reversed. If there are
specific things you
would like to hear more
gh,
inferior month
(February) compared to
the overall market.
but
rather because it is
equally as
beating
the market that preceded
it. Unlike a factory
that
y, By
its nature, investing
doesn't lend itself to
factory.
Short term results
(i.e.
market prices) rather
than whether
I
believe a three year
minimum
gladly
take a volatile 20%
It is
important to understand
that our long term
advantages against other
less confident
investors.
Gross
Return
1
Limited Partner Return2
55.0%
41.4%
87.5%
62.8%
60.2%
45.3%
83.2%
59.4%
753.3%
433.0%
17.6%
13.5%
903.3%
505.0%
$ 10,033
$ 6,050
but
before Performance
Allocation to the
General Partner
monthly
versed.
ts merely represent
is
needed for
ntages
S&P 500 Return
3
3.2%
15.2%
12.0%
8.4%
44.2%
4.8%
51.2%
$ 1,512
2
Quarter
in Review - The World at
Large
The S&P
500 closed the quarter
at 1169, still well off
the highs of over 1500
set in 2000 and 2007.
The
total
market capitalization
relative to GDP of US
companies is probably
the best measure of
overall
market
valuations. This is
generally subject to far
less noise than other
measures of overall
market
valuation such as
P/Earnings or P/Book or
dividend rates.
At the
end of March this ratio
stood at about 85%. In
1980 it was about 40%,
which gave approximately
a 17%
annual return over the
next twenty years and it
was about 150% in 2000
which produced slightly
negative
returns over the
following decade. We are
currently right in the
middle which suggests
that
the
market is approximately
fairly valued. This
point seems to reinforce
the idea that double
digit
annual
returns will only be
achieved through
intelligent security
selection where one has
a well
understood competitive
advantage. A passive
indexing approach will
no doubt beat the vast
majority of
active
investment managers (it
always has) but will not
likely produce the
returns of the 1980's
and 90's
("The
Great Bubble"). Our goal
is to outperform the
market by 10% per annum
on forward-looking basis
by
utilizing our
competitive advantages.
"The way
you lose money in the
market is to start off
with an economic
picture."
- Peter Lynch
The
economy is still getting
a disproportionate
amount of attention in
the news as the
recession appears
to be
ending, although job
recovery - as in all
previous recessions -
takes time. I tend to
agree with
Peter
Lynch in that spending
much time worrying about
macro factors: Greece,
recession,
unemployment, etc. is a
good way to be led down
a very poor investment
path. While there are
certainly some long term
trends that are
important to stay
abreast of, monthly
changes in GDP
estimates or payroll
numbers or Greece's CDS
are no more useful than
knowing to-the-second
market
quotations in making
intelligent investment
decisions. There are
simply very few
predictable things -
and even
fewer straight lines -
in complex, nonlinear,
dynamical systems (e.g.
the economy).
Mistake
of the Quarter
If you
recall from the year end
letter, we had been
involved in a number of
SPACs (a blank check
looking
for a
company to buy) that had
significantly mispriced
warrants. This required
accurately predicting
the
outcome
of a shareholder vote;
if there weren't enough
positive votes, the
warrants expire
worthless.
These
are by nature shorter
term special situations
as opposed to the long
term undervalued
positions
that
constitute the majority
of our portfolio. There
were about ten
situations that I
understood and
either
participated in or
actively did not
participate in because I
was fairly certain the
vote would not go
through.
We ended up being
correct in predicting
the votes in all
cases--it's only a coin
toss if you don't
have any
deeper knowledge, but
through logic and
understanding the
participants involved
and what
their
interests and
power/capability to
influence the vote was,
it was possible to
predict fairly reliably.
We made
quite a bit of money
from these situations
overall. One of them is
still a very large
holding,
though
we are holding it now on
the basis of
valuation--the SPAC
structure merely gave us
the
opportunity to find it
first. Unlike IPOs,
SPACs are already public
before the promoters
come in, giving
people
who like to uncover
obscure situations a
chance to get in early
and quietly.
3
From
October to January these
mispriced SPAC
situations received an
increasing amount of
attention
from the
investing community and,
as always happens with
more competition - the
spoils are split more
ways.
The mistake I made was
for the final SPAC we
were involved in where
the situation changed
unusually quickly. The
sponsors did not have a
deal assembled shortly
before their liquidation
deadline
(SPACs
generally have a 2 year
life where they must
reverse merge with a
business or liquidate).
It was
very
likely that the warrants
would expire worthless
but, with only days to
go, they announced a
deal
which I
liked after reading the
proxy.
I made
two mistakes here. The
first was that, in my
haste, I missed a point
in the several hundred
page
proxy
that there would be
significant dilution at
a lower share price than
I had thought, reducing
the
true
value from my initial
estimate by about 25%.
The second mistake was
on the portfolio
management side; I gave
too much weight to this
situation, assuming that
it would work out
favorably in
the
short term as every
other similar situation
had. In fact, it did
work out over the very
short term but
within
two days the market
price had declined. I
wouldn't consider this a
"trade" in the sense
that it
was
still grounded in
under-valuation as
opposed to speculating
what other market
participants would
pay in
the short term, but the
two mistakes together
decreased our
performance in the first
quarter by
quite a
bit, particularly since
the other positions I
sold to free up the cash
have appreciated
significantly.
I still
believe it is highly
likely that this
situation will make us
quite a bit of money
over the next two
years.
As I said, I
fundamentally like the
business, but missed a
key point and my
estimate of value was
clearly
wrong by at least 25%.
The
lessons learned from
investment mistakes are
rarely ever black and
white. Rather, it is
more of a
continuous feedback
response to try to
separate out what
information is important
from what isn't and
how to
allocate positions
within a portfolio.
There are a number of
factors that come
together here and
I have
shifted my balance
because of then. Clearly
more competition reduces
how lucrative an
opportunity is, so
perhaps next time we
will avoid overstaying
our welcome. Also, for
me personally, I
am not
geared toward anything
short term and the
amount of mental stress
imposed by doing
something that requires
checking a market quote
every hour is not worth
the potential loss of
insight in
more
long term situations
where I have a far
larger competitive
advantage. So in the
end, if this does
work out
it will be because of
that long term mentality
and not because of any
short term maneuvering
which
I'm clearly not equipped
to do!
With the
mistakes out in the
open, now onto what the
portfolio looks like.
Chinese
Companies
The
partnership has been
building some
significant positions in
Chinese companies that
are listed on US
exchanges and are
subject to the same
reporting and audit
requirements as any US
publicly traded
company.
With any foreign
investments, there are
additional risks assumed
related to currency,
accounting,
communication, rule of
law, fraud, politics,
and more. Some of these
risks are mitigated by
having a
more complete
understanding and what
remains must be
appropriately
compensated for. Our
approach
has been to be fairly
concentrated in specific
companies that I
understand and believe
have
4
virtually no risk of
fraud based on various
factors. Those other
factors might be related
to other
sophisticated investors
having large positions
alongside ours, having a
large international
auditor, and
most
importantly, having a
business that is simple
and straightforward and
therefore would be very
difficult to falsify. A
company that produces
widgets and is paid in
cash is far more
difficult to
misrepresent than Enron
style 20 year contracts
that are booked as
profits once the
signature is on the
page.
On the
whole I am very
optimistic for China as
a country. If you have
1.3 billion people that
all have the
motivation to work very
hard and introduce a
market system, rule of
law, and free trade with
far more
technologically advanced
neighbors, the outcome
is likely to work out
very well. This
contrasts to
somewhere like OPEC,
which is analogous to a
spoiled child who had
money rained down on
them from
birth
and was never forced to
learn any useful skills.
We have already started
to see some of the
effects
of this
with Dubai's debt scare
after the price of oil
dropped. I will put my
money behind human
ingenuity and hard work
over oil or shiny metal
any day.
One
company we have a
significant position in
has a fairly unique
business niche. They
provide
programming and
advertisements for
passengers on intercity
buses in China. They
make money by
selling
the advertisements and
have one of the
strongest competitive
positions of any company
I am
aware
of. They were awarded a
5 year exclusive
contract from the
Chinese Ministry of
Transport to
provide
programming and
advertisements for
intercity buses for all
of China in 2007 and
have been
building
their network rapidly.
Whether this contract is
renewed in 2012 likely
won't matter, as they
will
have
such a dominance over
the niche that it will
be virtually impossible
to dislodge them.
Additionally,
their
prices are far lower
than other "out of home"
advertisers, on subway
cars for example. I
can't
think of
a better opportunity for
advertisers to reach
potential customers than
when they are stuck on a
bus for
2 hours and have nothing
else to do (I don't know
about you, but I can't
read on a bus...), so
the
prices
are certain to continue
rising. This has all the
elements of a fantastic
business story and I
look
forward
to sharing more over the
next year as they grow.
This
quarter, the company
released its first 10K
after coming public
through a SPAC that I
mentioned in
the year
end letter. They have
been audited by a big 4
auditor; had a large and
very credible investor
make a
significant private
placement into them; and
performed up to
expectations in their Q4
earnings
release.
They will probably grow
their earnings at a 50%
or higher rate for the
next few years and yet
the
market is only assigning
a single digit multiple
to those earnings. A big
part of the reason the
stock is
so cheap
is because of the way it
went public. Unlike a
traditional IPO which is
promoted heavily by
investment bankers and
investors have little
chance of getting a good
deal--a SPAC already has
the cash,
so the
promotion, if any,
happens long after the
deal has been completed.
Additionally, many of
the
public
databases are
misinformed, as they
show the shell company
data (i.e. no revenues)
rather than
the
remarkable company that
the ticker symbol
actually represents. As
they say, new stocks are
not
bought,
they are sold...
5
Aircraft
Lessors and Taxes
We
continue to hold a
position in the aircraft
lessor idea that I wrote
about extensively in the
year end
letter
and was responsible for
majority of our gains in
2009. While they are
still undervalued, the
prices
have
appreciated
significantly from a
year ago making them
more risky and thus only
worthy of a
smaller
fraction of our capital.
The practice of shifting
from less undervalued
(i.e. expensive)
securities
to more
undervalued (i.e. cheap)
securities is
additionally complicated
due to tax effects.
While I do not
take any
specific investment
actions strictly for
their tax effects, it is
one factor out of a
multitude that
are
important. In
particular, there is a
significant difference
for our US-based
partners (including
myself)
between
long term and short term
capital gains. The
former is taxed at 15%
if there has been at
least a
one year
holding period and the
latter is taxed at up to
35% as ordinary income.
We are very near the
one year
milestone for these
holdings and so it
introduces an
interesting effect.
Say you
buy stock A that you
believe is worth $20 for
$4 and 11 months later
it is at $13, with an
unrealized profit of $9.
After 11 months, stock B
in a very similar
industry trades for $10
and you also
believe
it is worth $20 - do you
sell A to buy B? Well
the long term tax
treatment has the
following
effect:
if you wait one month,
this is the same as if
stock A increased by 14%
(or stock B decreased by
this
much, same thing). This
is because currently,
35% of the $9 profit is
going to the IRS, but in
only one
month,
that will be 15%, or an
extra $1.8 that you get
to keep. While you can
never know what will
happen
one month to the next,
taking an expected gain
of 14% certainly seems
sensible.
I
illustrate this to be
transparent in my
thinking and to show the
structure of our
partnership is more
favorable to your
interests than most
others. Because
partnerships are
flow-through entities
for tax
reasons,
whether a gain is long
term or not will not
affect our reported
performance numbers one
bit.
So if I,
as the manager, was
measured just based on
my performance (which is
largely true), then it
shouldn't matter if I
wait for the one year
mark to sell or not.
But, because I have such
a substantial
portion
of my own net worth
alongside yours, I am
cognizant of this tax
effect and what saves me
money on
taxes will do the same
for you. Again, this is
one of many factors and
is far from being the
more
significant, but there
is no substitute for
having interests in
alignment. Just as I
don't necessarily
know the
best way to run an
advertising company in
China, I trust the
judgment of a CEO who
owns half
the
company more than a
consultant who comes in
and gets paid by the
hour.
Regional
Banks
We had
built up a relatively
small position in three
regional banks that I
felt I understood
relatively well -
though
banking has a higher
amount of un-analyzable
risk than some other
businesses. Two of the
three
had come quite close to
insolvency during the
crisis but had managed
to raise capital and it
looked
like
they were in the clear.
Unfortunately (in a
weird way), I did not
expect perception to
change so
quickly
and they have gone up
between 60-120% in the
3-4 months that we've
held them and aren't as
interesting from a
valuation point of view
as before. While I will
continue to seek out
opportunities in
this
area they are harder to
find than only a quarter
ago.
6
I would
not advocate buying
financial services in
general, such as the S&P
Financials index.
Banking is a
good
business due to the high
switching costs for
customers and the
information asymmetry,
particularly in
investment banking
operations. That said,
over the last 20 years
leading up to the
crisis,
financial services grew
much faster than the
overall economy to the
point where it became
what
appears
to be a
disproportionately large
fraction. This trend
does not seem to be
sustainable unless you
believe
that more than 100% of
the economy can be
dedicated to moving
around the production of
other
industries (which in
this case would
presumably be borrowed
from the future). As I
said before it's
not easy
to make money off of
macro views, so I will
stick to finding
specific undervalued
businesses in
what
appears to be still an
overcrowded industry.
Balance
Sheet vs Earning Power
Valuation
To end
on a short but general
note, valuation is
determined by only one
thing: the discounted
cash flows
back to
the present at an
appropriate rate. This
cash may come soon from
asset sales or from the
distant
future from earnings.
This breaks down into
two categories I find
useful: valuation by
balance
sheet
and valuation by earning
power. Valuation by
earning power is almost
always higher than the
balance
sheet (a higher balance
sheet valuation would be
Adam Smith's way of
saying these assets
should
be put to some more
effective use in
society). I do not
particularly have a
preference and try to
seek
opportunities
undervalued by either
metric, though balance
sheets are clearly much
easier to
analyze
than future earning
power.
The
aircraft lessor
purchases that we made
money from in 2009 were
essentially rooted in a
balance
sheet
valuation. Even though
the lessors generate
cash from cash flows
rather than
liquidations, those
cash
flows were heavily
dependent on the assets,
so a balance sheet
approach was more
appropriate.
My
reasoning for the
Chinese advertising
company I mentioned is
entirely based on
earning power
which
depends largely on
competitive position so
copycats don't erode
profits. It is very easy
to get
lured
into easy to calculate
metrics but it is only
possible to approximate
value in very few
situations
that you
understand deeply. We
will stick to those few
situations.
Please
email me at rmorris@mesoncapital.com
or call at 607-279-5382
if you would like to
discuss
anything
here or contribute
capital to your account.
The minimum investment
for new partners is
currently $25,000 and
existing partners can
add any amount.
I will
be attending the
Berkshire meeting in
Omaha on May 1st, as
well as the Value
Investing Congress
and the
Wesco meeting in
Pasadena from May 2-6th,
please let me know if
you will be in the area!
Sincerely,
Ryan
Morris
Managing
Partner
Meson
Capital Partners L.P.
7
Monthly
Performance Figures:
Inception (Feb 24, 2009)
through March 31, 2010
Monthly
Returns
Month
Gross Net to LPs S&P 500
MCP-S&P Net-S&P
Feb
24-March 55.0% 41.4%
3.2% 51.8% 38.2%
April
80.1% 58.7% 15.2% 64.8%
43.4%
May 6.7%
5.1% 2.5% 4.2% 2.6%
June
-2.4% -2.4% -2.5% 0.1%
0.1%
July
13.7% 11.1% 6.6% 7.1%
4.5%
August
36.1% 27.2% 5.2% 30.8%
21.9%
September 3.6% 2.8%
-0.1% 3.7% 3.0%
October
26.1% 19.5% 0.6% 25.5%
18.9%
November
35.0% 26.0% 5.8% 29.2%
20.2%
December
7.7% 5.9% 1.7% 5.9% 4.1%
January
-3.2% -3.2% -3.7% 0.5%
0.5%
February
-8.6% -8.6% 2.8% -11.4%
-11.4%
March
32.9% 28.3% 5.9% 27.0%
22.4%
End of
Month Gross NAV LP NAV
S&P 500
Feb 24,
2009 $ 1.000 $ 1.000 $ 1
.000
March $
1.550 $ 1.414 $ 1 .032
April $
2.791 $ 2.243 $ 1 .190
May $
2.978 $ 2.359 $ 1 .220
June $
2.907 $ 2.302 $ 1 .189
July $
3.304 $ 2.557 $ 1 .267
August $
4.495 $ 3.252 $ 1 .334
September $ 4.658 $
3.345 $ 1 .332
October
$ 5.871 $ 3.996 $ 1 .340
November
$ 7.925 $ 5.034 $ 1 .418
December
$ 8.533 $ 5.330 $ 1 .442
January
$ 8.262 $ 5.161 $ 1 .389
February
$ 7.550 $ 4.716 $ 1 .428
March $
10.033 $ 6.050 $ 1 .512
Monthly
Net Asset Values
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
Jan Feb
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Mar Apr
Vaule of
$1 on Feb 24, 2009
(inception)
Date -
Valuations at end of
each month
Meson
Capital Partners
Performance Net to LPs
LP NAV
S&P 500
Notes:
(1) LP Returns = Gross
returns, net of
performance fee of 25%
of profits above 6%
annualized, calculated
monthly.
(2) S&P 500 is based
on the index value and
does not include
dividends, which are
approximately 2%
annually.